DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00121.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905908628
论文题名: A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions
作者: Tye M.R. ; Stephenson D.B. ; Holland G.J. ; Katz R.W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 16 起始页码: 6119
结束页码: 6133
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Wind
; Adaptation strategies
; Climate change impact assessments
; Maximum wind speed
; Pseudo-observations
; Regional climate model simulation
; Regional climate modeling
; Scale and shape parameters
; Wind speed distribution
; Weibull distribution
; climate modeling
; numerical model
; power law
; probability
; regional climate
; tropical cyclone
; Weibull theory
; wind forcing
; wind velocity
英文摘要: Reliable estimates of future changes in extreme weather phenomena, such as tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, are critical for climate change impact assessments and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. However, global and regional climate model outputs are often too coarse for direct use in these applications, with variables such as wind speed having truncated probability distributions compared to those of observations. This poses two problems: How canmodel-simulated variables best be adjusted to make themmore realistic? And how can such adjustments be used to make more reliable predictions of future changes in their distribution? This study investigates North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds from observations (1950- 2010) and regional climate model simulations (1995-2005 and 2045-55 at 12- and 36-km spatial resolutions). The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations). The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories-for example, an increase from 21% (1995-2005) to 27%-37% (2045-55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995- 2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51169
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Exeter Climate Systems, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Tye M.R.,Stephenson D.B.,Holland G.J.,et al. A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(16)