DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00417.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901949316
论文题名: An abrupt decrease in the late-season typhoon activity over the Western North Pacific
作者: Hsu P.-C. ; Chu P.-S. ; Murakami H. ; Zhao X.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 11 起始页码: 4296
结束页码: 4312
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Storms
; Accumulated cyclone energies
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Change-point analysis
; Circulation anomalies
; Eastern north pacific
; Environmental conditions
; Meteorological research institutes
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Hurricanes
; atmospheric general circulation model
; Bayesian analysis
; cyclone
; ensemble forecasting
; La Nina
; sea surface temperature
; typhoon
; vorticity
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Taiwan
英文摘要: In 1995 an abrupt shift in the late-season (October-December) typhoon activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) is detected by a Bayesian changepoint analysis. Interestingly, a similar change also occurs in the late-season sea surface temperature series over the western Pacific, eastern North Pacific, and portions of the Indian Ocean. All of the counts, lifespans, and accumulated cyclone energy of the late-season typhoons during the 1995-2011 epoch decreased significantly, compared with typhoons that occurred during the 1979-94 epoch. The negative vorticity anomaly is found to be the leading contributor to the genesis potential index (GPI) decrease over the southeastern sector of the WNP during 1995-2011. To elucidate the origin of the epochal change in the dynamic environmental conditions, a suite of sensitivity experiments is conducted based on the latest version of the Japan Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI AGCM). The ensemble simulations suggest that the recent change to a La Ni~na-like state induces an unfavorable dynamic condition for typhoon genesis over the southeastern WNP. Warming in the Indian Ocean, however, contributes insignificantly to the circulation anomaly related to typhoon genesis over the southeastern WNP. The frequency of typhoon occurrence reveals a basinwide decrease over the WNP in the recent epoch, except for a small increase near Taiwan. An empirical statistical analysis shows that the basinwide decrease in the frequency of the typhoon occurrence is primarily attributed to a decrease in typhoon genesis, while the change in track is of less importance. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51172
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing International Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i, Manoa Honolulu, HI, United States; Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i, Maanoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Hsu P.-C.,Chu P.-S.,Murakami H.,et al. An abrupt decrease in the late-season typhoon activity over the Western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(11)