DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00525.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84904488715
论文题名: ENSO seasonal synchronization theory
作者: Stein K. ; Timmermann A. ; Schneider N. ; Jin F.-F. ; Stuecker M.F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 14 起始页码: 5285
结束页码: 5310
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Differential equations
; Modulation
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Annual modulations
; Coupled general circulation models
; ENSO
; Key characteristics
; Nonlinear frequency
; Possible mechanisms
; Recharge oscillator
; Varying background
; Synchronization
; annual variation
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; equation
; seasonal variation
; stochasticity
; theoretical study
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
英文摘要: One of the key characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is its synchronization to the annual cycle, which manifests in the tendency of ENSO events to peak during boreal winter. Current theory offers two possible mechanisms to account the for ENSO synchronization: frequency locking of ENSO to periodic forcing by the annual cycle, or the effect of the seasonally varying background state of the equatorial Pacific on ENSO's coupled stability. Using a parametric recharge oscillator (PRO) model of ENSO, the authors test which of these scenarios provides a better explanation of the observed ENSO synchronization. Analytical solutions of the PRO model show that the annual modulation of the growth rate parameter results directly in ENSO's seasonal variance, amplitude modulation, and 2:1 phase synchronization to the annual cycle. The solutions are shown to be applicable to the long-term behavior of the damped model excited by stochastic noise, which produces synchronization characteristics that agree with the observations and can account for the variety of ENSO synchronization behavior in state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models. The model also predicts spectral peaks at "combination tones" between ENSO and the annual cycle that exist in the observations and many coupled models. In contrast, the nonlinear frequency entrainment scenario predicts the existence of a spectral peak at the biennial frequency corresponding to the observed 2:1 phase synchronization. Such a peak does not exist in the observed ENSO spectrum. Hence, it can be concluded that the seasonal modulation of the coupled stability is responsible for the synchronization of ENSO events to the annual cycle. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; NOAA, U.S. Department of Energy
; NASA, U.S. Department of Energy
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51192
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Hawai'i, United States; International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Hawai'i, United States; Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Hawai'i, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stein K.,Timmermann A.,Schneider N.,et al. ENSO seasonal synchronization theory[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(14)