DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00714.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916622813
论文题名: Understanding recent eastern Horn of Africa rainfall variability and change
作者: Liebmann B. ; Hoerling M.P. ; Funk C. ; Bladé I. ; Dole R.M. ; Allured D. ; Quan X. ; Pegion P. ; Eischeid J.K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 23 起始页码: 8630
结束页码: 8645
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Rain
; Surface waters
; Interannual variability
; Model and observation
; Precipitation trends
; Rainfall variability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern oscillation
; Statistical significance
; Western indian oceans
; Oceanography
; climatology
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; precipitation assessment
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; temperature anomaly
; temperature gradient
; Horn of Africa
英文摘要: Observations and sea surface temperature (SST)-forced ECHAM5 simulations are examined to study the seasonal cycle of eastern Africa rainfall and its SST sensitivity during 1979-2012, focusing on interannual variability and trends. The eastern Horn is drier than the rest of equatorial Africa, with two distinct wet seasons, and whereas the October-December wet season has become wetter, the March-May season has become drier. The climatological rainfall in simulations driven by observed SSTs captures this bimodal regime. The simulated trends also qualitatively reproduce the opposite-sign changes in the two rainy seasons, suggesting that SST forcing has played an important role in the observed changes. The consistency between the sign of 1979-2012 trends and interannual SST-precipitation correlations is exploited to identify the most likely locations of SST forcing of precipitation trends in the model, and conceivably also in nature. Results indicate that the observed March-May drying since 1979 is due to sensitivity to an increased zonal gradient in SST between Indonesia and the central Pacific. In contrast, the October-December precipitation increase is mostly due to western Indian Ocean warming. The recent upward trend in the October-December wet season is rather weak, however, and its statistical significance is compromised by strong year-to-year fluctuations. October-December eastern Horn rain variability is strongly associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena on interannual scales, in both model and observations. The interannual October-December correlation between the ensemble-average and observed Horn rainfall 0.87. By comparison, interannual March-May Horn precipitation is only weakly constrained by SST anomalies. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51198
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Sioux Falls, SD, United States; The Climate Hazards Group, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Departament d'Astronomia i Meteorologia, Facultat de Fiśica, Universitat de Barcelona, and Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, IC3, Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Liebmann B.,Hoerling M.P.,Funk C.,et al. Understanding recent eastern Horn of Africa rainfall variability and change[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(23)