DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00336.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919681360
论文题名: Eastern Pacific intraseasonal variability: A predictability perspective
作者: Neena J.M. ; Jiang X. ; Waliser D. ; Lee J.-Y. ; Wang B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 23 起始页码: 8869
结束页码: 8883
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Forecasting
; Storms
; Wind effects
; Climate variability
; Dynamical predictions
; Initial conditions
; Intraseasonal variability
; Large-scale impacts
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Tropical cyclone
; Weather and climate models
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; hindcasting
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: The eastern Pacific (EPAC) warm pool is a region of strong intraseasonal variability (ISV) during boreal summer. While the EPAC ISV is known to have large-scale impacts that shape the weather and climate in the region (e.g., tropical cyclones and local monsoon), simulating the EPAC ISV is still a great challenge for present-day global weather and climate models. In the present study, the predictive skill and predictability of the EPAC ISV are explored in eight coupled model hindcasts from the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE). Relative to the prediction skill for the boreal winter Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the ISVHE (~15-25 days), the skill for the EPAC ISV is considerably lower in most models, with an average skill around 10 days. On the other hand, while the MJO exhibits a predictability of 35-45 days, the predictability estimate for the EPAC ISV is 20-30 days. The prediction skill was found to be higher when the hindcasts were initialized from the convective phase of the EPAC ISV as opposed to the subsidence phase. Higher prediction skill was also found to be associated with active MJO initial conditions over the western Pacific (evident in four out of eight models), signaling the importance of exploring the dynamic link between the MJO and the EPAC ISV. The results illustrate the possibility and need for improving dynamical prediction systems to facilitate more accurate and longer-lead predictions of the EPAC ISV and associated weather and short-term climate variability. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51209
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; International Pacific Research Center, and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Institute of Environmental Studies, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Neena J.M.,Jiang X.,Waliser D.,et al. Eastern Pacific intraseasonal variability: A predictability perspective[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(23)