DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00715.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905192565
论文题名: Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers, and predictability
作者: King A.D. ; Klingaman N.P. ; Alexander L.V. ; Donat M.G. ; Jourdain N.C. ; Maher P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 15 起始页码: 6035
结束页码: 6050
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Coastal zones
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Australia
; Climate variability
; Empirical Orthogonal Function
; ENSO
; Interannual variability
; Rain
; annual variation
; anticyclone
; atmospheric blocking
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; empirical analysis
; midlatitude environment
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; synoptic meteorology
; tropical cyclone
; Australia
; Indian Ocean
英文摘要: Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. The authors illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean dipole and southern annular mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability from the Pacific is greater for wetter-than-average summer months than for months that are drier than average, whereas for the Indian Ocean the relationship has greater linearity. Several cool-season EOTs are associated with midlatitude synoptic-scale patterns along the south and east coasts. These patterns have common atmospheric signatures denoting moist onshore flow and strong cyclonic anomalies often to the north of a blocking anticyclone. Tropical cyclone activity is observed to have significant relationships with some warm-season EOTs. This analysis shows that extreme rainfall variability in Australia can be related to remote drivers and local synoptic-scale patterns throughout the year. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: ARC, Natural Environment Research Council
; ARC, Natural Environment Research Council
; ARC, Natural Environment Research Council
; NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51240
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
King A.D.,Klingaman N.P.,Alexander L.V.,et al. Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers, and predictability[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(15)