DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00214.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84907833469
论文题名: Constraining transient climate sensitivity using coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions
作者: Merlis T.M. ; Held I.M. ; Stenchikov G.L. ; Zeng F. ; Horowitz L.W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 20 起始页码: 7781
结束页码: 7795
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate sensitivity
; Coupled climate model
; Volcanic eruptions
; climate change
; climate modeling
; coupling
; radiative forcing
; sensitivity analysis
; surface temperature
; volcanic eruption
英文摘要: Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51257
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: McGill University, Montreal, Qc, Canada; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Recommended Citation:
Merlis T.M.,Held I.M.,Stenchikov G.L.,et al. Constraining transient climate sensitivity using coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(20)