| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00473.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84898050510
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| 论文题名: | The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions |
| 作者: | Hawkins E.; Dong B.; Robson J.; Sutton R.; Smith D.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 27, 期:8 | | 起始页码: | 2931
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| 结束页码: | 2947
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Climatology
; Errors
; Forecasting
; Greenhouse gases
; Climate prediction
; Climate response
; Decadal predictions
; Global-mean temperature
; Highly-correlated
; Internal variability
; Physical quantities
; Prediction systems
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; forecasting method
; hindcasting
; sampling bias
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| 英文摘要: | Decadal climate predictions exhibit large biases, which are often subtracted and forgotten. However, understanding the causes of bias is essential to guide efforts to improve prediction systems, and may offer additional benefits. Here the origins of biases in decadal predictions are investigated, including whether analysis of these biases might provide useful information. The focus is especially on the lead-time-dependent bias tendency. A "toy" model of a prediction system is initially developed and used to show that there are several distinct contributions to bias tendency. Contributions from sampling of internal variability and a starttime-dependent forcing bias can be estimated and removed to obtain a much improved estimate of the true bias tendency, which can provide information about errors in the underlying model and/or errors in the specification of forcings. It is argued that the true bias tendency, not the total bias tendency, should be used to adjust decadal forecasts. The methods developed are applied to decadal hindcasts of global mean temperature made using the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), climate model, and it is found that this model exhibits a small positive bias tendency in the ensemble mean. When considering different model versions, it is shown that the true bias tendency is very highly correlated with both the transient climate response (TCR) and non-greenhouse gas forcing trends, and can therefore be used to obtain observationally constrained estimates of these relevant physical quantities. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51261
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Hawkins E.,Dong B.,Robson J.,et al. The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(8)
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