globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84896093136
论文题名:
The NCEP climate forecast system version 2
作者: Saha S.; Moorthi S.; Wu X.; Wang J.; Nadiga S.; Tripp P.; Behringer D.; Hou Y.-T.; Chuang H.-Y.; Iredell M.; Ek M.; Meng J.; Yang R.; Mendez M.P.; Van Den Dool H.; Zhang Q.; Wang W.; Chen M.; Becker E.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期:6
起始页码: 2185
结束页码: 2208
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology ; Oceanography ; Water management ; Coupled models ; Hindcasts ; Land surface modeling ; Ocean model ; Operational forecasting ; Seasonal forecasting ; Forecasting ; air temperature ; climate prediction ; data assimilation ; data set ; hindcasting ; land surface ; numerical model ; United States
英文摘要: The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled reanalysis was made over a 32-yr period (1979-2010), which provided the initial conditions to carry out a comprehensive reforecast over 29 years (1982-2010). This was done to obtain consistent and stable calibrations, as well as skill estimates for the operational subseasonal and seasonal predictions at NCEP with CFSv2. The operational implementation of the full system ensures a continuity of the climate record and provides a valuable up-to-date dataset to study many aspects of predictability on the seasonal and subseasonal scales. Evaluation of the reforecasts show that the CFSv2 increases the length of skillful MJO forecasts from 6 to 17 days (dramatically improving subseasonal forecasts), nearly doubles the skill of seasonal forecasts of 2-m temperatures over the United States, and significantly improves global SST forecasts over its predecessor. The CFSv2 not only provides greatly improved guidance at these time scales but also creates many more products for subseasonal and seasonal forecasting with an extensive set of retrospective forecasts for users to calibrate their forecast products. These retrospective and real-time operational forecasts will be used by a wide community of users in their decision making processes in areas such as water management for rivers and agriculture, transportation, energy use by utilities, wind and other sustainable energy, and seasonal prediction of the hurricane season. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51288
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States; I. M. Systems Group, Inc., Rockville, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Largo, MD, United States; Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States; Wyle Lab, Inc., Arlington, VA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Saha S.,Moorthi S.,Wu X.,et al. The NCEP climate forecast system version 2[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(6)
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