DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00624.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902106535
论文题名: Predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)
作者: Neena J.M. ; Lee J.Y. ; Waliser D. ; Wang B. ; Jiang X.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 12 起始页码: 4531
结束页码: 4543
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Experiments
; Ensemble prediction systems
; Forecast verification/skill
; Intraseasonal time scale
; Intraseasonal variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Predictability limit
; Research and development
; Seasonal variation
; Forecasting
; atmospheric general circulation model
; atmospheric modeling
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; hindcasting
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) represents a primary source of predictability on the intraseasonal time scales and its influence extends from seasonal variations toweather and extreme events.While the last decade has witnessed marked improvement in dynamicalMJO prediction, an updated estimate of MJO predictability from a contemporary suite of dynamic models, in conjunction with an estimate of their corresponding prediction skill, is crucial for guiding future research and development priorities. In this study, the predictability of the boreal winter MJOis revisited based on the IntraseasonalVariability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE), a set of dedicated extended-range hindcasts from eight different coupled models. Two estimates of MJO predictability are made, based on single-member and ensemble-mean hindcasts, giving values of 20-30 days and 35-45 days, respectively. Exploring the dependence of predictability on the phase of MJO during hindcast initiation reveals a slightly higher predictability for hindcasts initiated from MJO phases 2, 3, 6, or 7 in three of the models with higher prediction skill. The estimated predictability ofMJOinitiated in phases 2 and 3 (i.e., convection in IndianOcean with subsequent propagation acrossMaritimeContinent) being equal to or higher than otherMJOphases implies that the so-calledMaritime Continent prediction barrier may not actually be an intrinsic predictability limitation. For most of the models, the skill for single-member (ensemble mean) hindcasts is less than the estimated predictability limit by about 5-10 days (15-25 days), implying that significantly more skillful MJO forecasts can be afforded through further improvements of dynamical models and ensemble prediction systems (EPS). © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; ONR, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51393
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Institute of Environmental Studies, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Neena J.M.,Lee J.Y.,Waliser D.,et al. Predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(12)