DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00360.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899061725
论文题名: Northern Eurasian heat waves and droughts
作者: Schubert S.D. ; Wang H. ; Koster R.D. ; Suarez M.J. ; Groisman P.Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 9 起始页码: 3169
结束页码: 3207
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Computer simulation
; Drought
; NASA
; Oceanography
; Soil moisture
; Atmospheric variability
; Decadal timescale
; Decadal variability
; Goddard earth observing systems
; Literature survey
; Precipitation change
; Precipitation variability
; Surface temperatures
; Climatology
; air temperature
; climate change
; drought
; extreme event
; precipitation (climatology)
; severe weather
; Eurasia
英文摘要: This article reviews the understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5). Key new results are 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave); 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST; and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in the understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51398
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States; National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, United States; Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Schubert S.D.,Wang H.,Koster R.D.,et al. Northern Eurasian heat waves and droughts[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(9)