| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00577.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84896958301
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| 论文题名: | ENSO modulation: Is it decadally predictable? |
| 作者: | Wittenberg A.T.; Rosati A.; Delworth T.L.; Vecchi G.A.; Zeng F.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 27, 期:7 | | 起始页码: | 2667
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| 结束页码: | 2681
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Computer simulation
; Greenhouse gases
; Modulation
; Climate signals
; Climate simulation
; Decadal predictions
; Extratropical
; Initial conditions
; Interdecadal
; Model evaluation
; Orbital variations
; Climatology
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; extratropical environment
; tropical environment
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| 英文摘要: | Observations and climate simulations exhibit epochs of extreme El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior that can persist for decades. Previous studies have revealed a wide range of ENSO responses to forcings from greenhouse gases, aerosols, and orbital variations, but they have also shown that interdecadal modulation of ENSO can arise even without such forcings. The present study examines the predictability of this intrinsically generated component of ENSO modulation, using a 4000-yr unforced control run from a global coupled GCM [GFDL Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1)] with a fairly realistic representation of ENSO. ExtremeENSO epochs from the unforced simulation are reforecast using the same ("perfect") model but slightly perturbed initial conditions. These 40-member reforecast ensembles display potential predictability of the ENSO trajectory, extending up to several years ahead. However, no decadal-scale predictability of ENSO behavior is found. This indicates that multidecadal epochs of extreme ENSO behavior can arise not only intrinsically but also delicately and entirely at random. Previous work had shown that CM2.1 generates strong, reasonably realistic, decadally predictable high-latitude climate signals, as well as tropical and extratropical decadal signals that interact with ENSO. However, those slow variations appear not to lend significant decadal predictability to this model's ENSO behavior, at least in the absence of external forcings. While the potential implications of these results are sobering for decadal predictability, they also offer an expedited approach to model evaluation and development, in which large ensembles of short runs are executed in parallel, to quickly and robustly evaluate simulations of ENSO. Further implications are discussed for decadal prediction, attribution of past and future ENSO variations, and societal vulnerability.© 2014 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51409
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Wittenberg A.T.,Rosati A.,Delworth T.L.,et al. ENSO modulation: Is it decadally predictable?[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(7)
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