DOI: 10.1175/JCLI_D_13_00077.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84903398979
论文题名: Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics
作者: Russon T. ; Tudhope A.W. ; Hegerl G.C. ; Schurer A. ; Collins M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 13 起始页码: 4911
结束页码: 4922
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bandpass filters
; Climate models
; Statistics
; Time series
; Climatic variables
; ENSO
; Equatorial Pacific
; Parametric forms
; Parametric testing
; Sampling distribution
; Spectral properties
; Tropical variability
; Climatology
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; general circulation model
; sea surface temperature
; variance analysis
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Central)
; Anthozoa
英文摘要: The variance of time series records relating to ENSO, such as the interannual anomalies or bandpass filtered components of equatorial Pacific SST indices, provides one approach to quantifying changes in ENSO amplitude. Robust assessment of the significance of changes in amplitude defined in this way is, however, hampered by uncertainty regarding the sampling distributions of such variance metrics within an unforced climate system. The present study shows that the empirical constraints on these sampling distributions provided by a range of unforced CGCM simulations are consistent with the expected parametric form, suggesting that standard parametric testing strategies can be robustly applied, even in the case of the nonlinear ENSO system. Under such an approach, the sampling distribution of unforced relative changes in variance may be constrained by a single parameter τd: the value of which depends on the choice of method used to extract the ENSO-related component of time series variability. In the case of interannual anomaly records, the value of τd is also substantially dependent on the overall spectral properties of the climatic variable under consideration. In contrast, the τd value for bandpass filtered records can be conservatively constrained from the lower edge of the filter passband, allowing for the direct but robust assessment of the significance of relative changes in ENSO amplitude, regardless of the climatic variable under consideration. Example applications of this approach confirm marginally significant F-test p values for multidecadal changes in central Pacific instrumental SST variance and highly significant ones for centennial changes in central Pacific coral δ18O variance. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
; NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51441
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Geo-Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Russon T.,Tudhope A.W.,Hegerl G.C.,et al. Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(13)