DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00204.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890232664
论文题名: Simulation and projection of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode in CMIP5 models
作者: Zheng F. ; Li J. ; Clark R.T. ; Nnamchi H.C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 24 起始页码: 9860
结束页码: 9879
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Asymmetric component
; Climate variability
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Greenhouse gas (GHG)
; Model uncertainties
; Southern hemisphere annular modes
; Spatial and temporal variability
; Stratospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Uncertainty analysis
; Computer simulation
; air temperature
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; concentration (composition)
; decadal variation
; extratropical environment
; greenhouse gas
; Southern Hemisphere
; spatial variation
; stratosphere
; summer
; temporal variation
英文摘要: Climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical regions is dominated by the SH annular mode (SAM). Future changes in the SAMcould have a large influence on the climate over broad regions. In this paper, the authors utilized model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to examine projected future changes in the SAM during the austral summer [December-February (DJF)]. To start off, first, the ability of the models in reproducing the recently observed spatial and temporal variability was assessed. The 12CMIP5 models examined were found to reproduce the SAM's spatial pattern reasonably well in terms of both the symmetrical and the asymmetric component. The CMIP5 models show an improvement over phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3) in simulating the seesaw structure of the SAM and also give improvements in the recently observed positive SAMtrend. However, only half themodels appeared to be able to capture twomajor recent decadal SAMphases. Then, the future SAMtrends and its sensitivity to greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations using simulations based on the representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) were explored. WithRCP4.5, a veryweak negative trend for this century is found. Conversely, with RCP8.5, a significant positive trend was projected, with amagnitude similar to the recently observed trend. Finally, model uncertainty in the future SAM projections was quantified by comparing projections from the individual CMIP5 models. The results imply the response of SH polar region stratospheric temperature to GHGs could be a significant controlling factor on the future evolution of the SAM. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51497
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Zheng F.,Li J.,Clark R.T.,et al. Simulation and projection of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode in CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(24)