DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00126.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890236438
论文题名: Downscaling of climate change in the hawaii region using CMIP5 results: On the choice of the forcing fields*
作者: Lauer A. ; Zhang C. ; Elison-Timm O. ; Wang Y. ; Hamilton K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 24 起始页码: 10006
结束页码: 10030
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate prediction
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Downscaling methods
; Dynamical downscaling
; Individual modeling
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional model
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Commerce
; Computer simulation
; Global warming
; Rain
; Uncertainty analysis
; Weather forecasting
; Wind effects
; Experiments
; atmospheric forcing
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; global warming
; weather forecasting
; Hawaii [United States]
; United States
英文摘要: The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been configured as a regional climate model for the Hawaii region (HRCM) to assess the uncertainties associated with the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method using different warming increments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model experiments. Results from 15-km downscaling experiments using warming increments from 10 individual CMIP5 models for the two warming scenarios representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) are compared with experiments using multimodel mean warming increments. The results show that changes in 2-m temperatures, 10-m wind speed, rainfall, water vapor path, and trade wind inversion vary significantly among the individual model experiments. This translates into large uncertainties when picking one particular CMIP5 model to provide the warming increments for dynamical downscaling in the Hawaii region. The simulations also show that, despite the large interexperiment spread, a single downscaling experiment using multimodel mean warming increments gives very similar results to the ensemble mean of downscaling experiments using warming increments obtained from 10 individual CMIP5 models. Robust changes of the projected climate by the end of the twenty-first century in the Hawaii region shown by most downscaling experiments include increasing 2-m temperatures with stronger warming at higher elevations, a large increase in precipitable water, and an increase in the number of days with a trade wind inversion (TWI). Furthermore, most experiments agree on a reduction in TWI height and an increase in the TWI strength. Uncertainties in the projected changes in rainfall and 10-m wind speed are large and there is little consensus among the individual downscaling experiments. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51498
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Maanoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Hawai'i at Maanoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lauer A.,Zhang C.,Elison-Timm O.,et al. Downscaling of climate change in the hawaii region using CMIP5 results: On the choice of the forcing fields*[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(24)