DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00093.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888035385
论文题名: Probability of Tornado occurrence across Canada
作者: Cheng V.Y.S. ; Arhonditsis G.B. ; Sills D.M.L. ; Auld H. ; Shephard M.W. ; Gough W.A. ; Klaassen J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 23 起始页码: 9415
结束页码: 9428
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian methods
; Cloud-to-ground lightning
; Lightning flash density
; Model errors
; North America
; Predictive relationships
; Sparsely populated areas
; Statistical techniques
; Bayesian networks
; Climatology
; Lightning protection
; Population distribution
; Population dynamics
; Population statistics
; Probability
; Risk assessment
; Tornadoes
; Bayesian analysis
; climatology
; cloud to ground lightning
; convective system
; error analysis
; observational method
; probability
; risk assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; tornado
; weather forecasting
; Canada
英文摘要: The number of tornado observations in Canada is believed to be significantly lower than the actual occurrences. To account for this bias, the authors propose a Bayesian modeling approach founded upon the explicit consideration of the population sampling bias in tornado observations and the predictive relationship between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash climatology and tornado occurrence. The latter variable was used as an indicator for quantifying convective storm activity, which is generally a precursor to tornado occurrence. The CG lightning data were generated from an 11-yr lightning climatology survey (1999-2009) from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network. The results suggest that the predictions of tornado occurrence in populated areas are fairly reliable with no profound underestimation bias. In sparsely populated areas, the analysis shows that the probability of tornado occurrence is significantly higher than what is represented in the 30-yr data record. Areas with low population density but high lightning flash density demonstrate the greatest discrepancy between predicted and observed tornado occurrence. A sensitivity analysis with various grid sizes was also conducted. It was found that the predictive statements supported by the model are fairly robust to the grid configuration, but the population density per grid cell is more representative to the actual population density at smaller resolution and therefore more accurately depicts the probability of tornado occurrence. Finally, a tornado probability map is calculated for Canada based on the frequency of tornado occurrence derived from the model and the estimated damage area of individual tornado events. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51516
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Ecological Modelling Laboratory, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Climate Laboratory, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Cheng V.Y.S.,Arhonditsis G.B.,Sills D.M.L.,et al. Probability of Tornado occurrence across Canada[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(23)