| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00756.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84886240827
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| 论文题名: | North American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study |
| 作者: | Hall T.; Yonekura E.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 26, 期:21 | | 起始页码: | 8422
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| 结束页码: | 8439
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Geographic structures
; Hurricane landfall
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Standard deviation
; Statistical modeling
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone landfalls
; Climatology
; Risk assessment
; Stochastic models
; Hurricanes
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; hurricane
; numerical model
; risk assessment
; sea surface temperature
; stochasticity
; tropical cyclone
; typhoon
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; North America
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| 英文摘要: | A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over theNAsubtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropicalmean SST (termed relSST).Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSOto a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annualmajor hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to+2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
| 资助项目: | NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51566
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | NASA GISS, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Hall T.,Yonekura E.. North American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(21)
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