DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00808.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886258231
论文题名: Observed versus GCM-generated local tropical cyclone frequency: Comparisons using a spatial lattice
作者: Strazzo S. ; Elsner J.B. ; Larow T. ; Halperin D.J. ; Zhao M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 21 起始页码: 8257
结束页码: 8268
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Florida State University
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Global climate model
; High-resolution atmospheric models
; Hurricane activity
; Lattice approaches
; Model comparison
; Model evaluation/performance
; Computer simulation
; Hurricanes
; Tropics
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; comparative study
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Gulf of Mexico
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) model over the common period 1982-2008. Results show that the spatial distribution of TCs generated by the GFDL model compares well with observations globally, although there are areas of over- and underprediction, particularly in parts of the PacificOcean. Differencemaps using the spatial lattice highlight these discrepancies. Additionally, comparisons focusing on theNorthAtlantic Ocean basin aremade. Results confirma large area of overprediction by the FSU COAPS model in the south-central portion of the basin. Relevant to projections of future U.S. hurricane activity is the fact that both models underpredict TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51574
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Strazzo S.,Elsner J.B.,Larow T.,et al. Observed versus GCM-generated local tropical cyclone frequency: Comparisons using a spatial lattice[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(21)