DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00679.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84885339055
论文题名: A physical basis for the probabilistic prediction of the accumulated tropical cyclone kinetic energy in the Western North Pacific
作者: Kim H.-M. ; Lee M.-I. ; Webster P.J. ; Kim D. ; Yoo J.H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 20 起始页码: 7981
结束页码: 7991
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Correlation coefficient
; Probabilistic prediction
; Probabilistic Skill
; Relative operating characteristics
; Seasonal forecasts
; Statistical relationship
; Vertical wind shear
; Western North Pacific
; Atmospheric pressure
; Hurricanes
; Kinetic energy
; Kinetics
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Wind effects
; Forecasting
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; kinetic energy
; probability
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; wind shear
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) andtropical storm (TS) activity over the western North Pacific Ocean is examined for the period from 1981 to 2010. In El Niño years, TS genesis locations are generally shifted to the southeast relative to normal years and the passages of TSs tend to recurve to the northeast. TSs of greater duration and more intensity during an El Niño summer induce an increase of the accumulated tropical cyclone kinetic energy (ACE). Based on the strong relationship between the TS properties and ENSO, a probabilistic predictionfor seasonal ACE is investigated using a hybrid dynamical-statistical model. A statistical relationship is developed between the observed ACE and largescale variables taken from the ECMWF seasonal forecast system 4 hindcasts.The ACE correlates positively with the SST anomaly over the central to eastern Pacific and negatively with the vertical wind shear near the date line.The vertical wind shear anomalies over the central and western Pacific are selected aspredictors based on sensitivity tests of ACE predictive skill. The hybrid model performs quite well in forecasting seasonal ACE with a correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted ACE at 0.80 over the30-yr period. A relative operating characteristic analysis also indicates that the ensembles have significant probabilistic skill for both the above-normal and below-normal categories. By comparing the ACE prediction over theperiod from 2003 to 2011, the hybrid model appears more skillful than the forecast from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51598
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, South Korea; School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, United States; School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, South Korea; APEC Climate Center, Pusan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kim H.-M.,Lee M.-I.,Webster P.J.,et al. A physical basis for the probabilistic prediction of the accumulated tropical cyclone kinetic energy in the Western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(20)