DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00587.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884952238
论文题名: Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP5 coupled models
作者: Seo K.-H. ; Ok J. ; Son J.-H. ; Cha D.-H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 19 起始页码: 7662
结束页码: 7675
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; East Asian summer monsoon
; Moist static energy
; Moisture convergence
; Moisture flux convergences
; Monsoons
; Precipitation deficits
; South-westerly winds
; Climate models
; Evaporation
; Troposphere
; Moisture
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate change
; climate prediction
; convergence
; general circulation model
; moisture flux
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; troposphere
; East China Sea
; Korea
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are estimated from historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) experiments of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs show that, like the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models produce slightly smaller precipitation. A moisture budget analysis illustrates that this precipitation deficit is due to an underestimation in evaporation and ensuing moisture flux convergence. Of the two components of the moisture flux convergence (i.e., moisture convergence and horizontal moist advection), moisture convergence associated with mass convergence is underestimated to a greater degree. Precipitation is anticipated to increase by 10%-15% toward the end of the twenty-first century over the major monsoonal front region. A statistically significant increase is predicted to occur mostly over the Baiu region and to the north and northeast of the Korean Peninsula. This increase is attributed to an increase in evaporation and moist flux convergence (with enhanced moisture convergence contributing the most) induced by the northwestward strengthening of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH), a characteristic feature of the future EASM that occurred in CMIP5 simulations. Along the northern and northwestern flank of the strengthened NPSH, intensified southerly or southwesterly winds lead to the increase in moist convergence, enhancing precipitation over these areas. However, future precipitation over the East China Sea is projected to decrease. In the EASM domain, a local mechanism prevails, with increased moisture and moisture convergence leading to a greater increase in moist static energy in the lower troposphere than in the upper troposphere, reducing tropospheric stability. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51639
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan 609735, South Korea; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Division of Earth Environmental System, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Seo K.-H.,Ok J.,Son J.-H.,et al. Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP5 coupled models[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(19)