globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00623.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884217586
论文题名:
Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century
作者: Brovkin V.; Boysen L.; Arora V.K.; Boisier J.P.; Cadule P.; Chini L.; Claussen M.; Friedlingstein P.; Gayler V.; Van den hurk B.J.J.M.; Hurtt G.C.; Jones C.D.; Kato E.; De noblet-ducoudre N.; Pacifico F.; Pongratz J.; Weiss M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期:18
起始页码: 6859
结束页码: 6881
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate mitigations ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Environmental model ; Interdisciplinary research ; Land surface albedo ; Land use and land cover change ; Subtropical regions ; Surface air temperatures ; Climatology ; Earth (planet) ; Land use ; Climate models ; anthropogenic effect ; carbon sequestration ; climate change ; climate modeling ; land cover ; land use change ; twenty first century
英文摘要: The effects of land-use changes on climate are assessed using specified-concentration simulations complementary to the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP8.5 scenarios performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This analysis focuses on differences in climate and land-atmosphere fluxes between the ensemble averages of simulations with and without land-use changes by the end of the twenty-first century. Even though common land-use scenarios are used, the areas of crops and pastures are specific for each Earth system model (ESM). This is due to different interpretations of land-use classes. The analysis reveals that fossil fuel forcing dominates land-use forcing. In addition, the effects of land-use changes are globally not significant, whereas they are significant for regions with land-use changes exceeding 10%. For these regions, three out of six participating models-the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2); Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (Earth System) (HadGEM2-ES); and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System Model (MIROC-ESM)-reveal statistically significant changes in mean annual surface air temperature. In addition, changes in land surface albedo, available energy, and latent heat fluxes are small but significant for most ESMs in regions affected by land-use changes. These climatic effects are relatively small, as land-use changes in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios are small in magnitude and mainly limited to tropical and subtropical regions. The relative importance of the climatic effects of land-use changes is higher for the RCP2.6 scenario, which considers an expansion of biofuel croplands as a climate mitigation option. The underlying similarity among all models is the loss in global land carbon storage due to land-use changes. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51654
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland, United States; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Netherlands Royal Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Brovkin V.,Boysen L.,Arora V.K.,et al. Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(18)
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