DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00476.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881187423
论文题名: Constraining the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions using CMIP5 simulations
作者: Gillett N.P. ; Arora V.K. ; Matthews D. ; Allen M.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 18 起始页码: 6844
结束页码: 6858
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon emissions
; Climate mitigations
; Climate response
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Cumulative emissions
; Emissions scenarios
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Carbon dioxide
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global warming
英文摘要: The ratio of warming to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide has been shown to be approximately independent of time and emissions scenarios and directly relates emissions to temperature. It is therefore a potentially important tool for climate mitigation policy. The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE), defined as the ratio of global-mean warming to cumulative emissions at CO2 doubling in a 1%yr-1 CO2 increase experiment, ranges from 0.8 to 2.4K EgC-1 in 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)-a somewhat broader range than that found in a previous generation of carbon-climate models. Using newly available simulations and a new observational temperature dataset to 2010, TCREis estimated from observations by dividing an observationally constrained estimate of CO2-attributable warming by an estimate of cumulative carbon emissions to date, yielding an observationally constrained 5%-95% range of 0.7-2.0K EgC-1. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51661
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, Montreal, Qc, Canada; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Gillett N.P.,Arora V.K.,Matthews D.,et al. Constraining the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions using CMIP5 simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(18)