DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884214257
论文题名: Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models
作者: Masato G. ; Hoskins B.J. ; Woollings T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 18 起始页码: 7044
结束页码: 7059
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric blocking
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Eastern Europe
; Emission scenario
; Higher latitudes
; Mid-latitude storms
; Northern Hemispheres
; Poleward shift
; Climate models
; Storms
; Computer simulation
; atmospheric blocking
; midlatitude environment
; Northern Hemisphere
; storm track
; summer
; wave breaking
; westerly
; winter
; Eurasia
; Europe
; Russian Federation
英文摘要: The frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the twentieth to the twenty-first centuries as simulated in 12 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. The representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) high emission scenario runs are used to represent the twenty-first century. The analysis is based on the wavebreaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins. It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni index in viewing equatorward cutofflows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. One-dimensional and two-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the midlatitude storm track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the twenty-first century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean twenty-first-century winter poleward shift of high-latitude blocking but little agreement between the models on the details. In summer, Eurasian blocking is also underestimated in the models, whereas it is now too large over the high-latitude ocean basins. A decrease in European blocking frequency in the twenty-first-century model runs is again found. However, in summer there is a clear eastward shift of blocking over eastern Europe and western Russia, in a region close to the blocking that dominated the Russian summer of 2010. While summer blocking decreases in general, the poleward shift of the storm track into the region of frequent high-latitude blocking may mean that the incidence of storms being obstructed by blocks may actually increase. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51668
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Early Gate, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Masato G.,Hoskins B.J.,Woollings T.. Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(18)