globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00108.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884226825
论文题名:
Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years
作者: Phipps S.J.; Mcgregor H.V.; Gergis J.; Gallant A.J.E.; Neukom R.; Stevenson S.; Ackerley D.; Brown J.R.; Fischer M.J.; Van Ommen T.D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期:18
起始页码: 6915
结束页码: 6936
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic signals ; Climate model simulations ; Climate system model ; Northern Hemispheres ; Paleoclimate proxy ; Sources of uncertainty ; Southern Hemisphere ; Temperature reconstruction ; Atmospheric pressure ; Climate change ; Computer simulation ; Greenhouse gases ; Research ; Volcanoes ; Climate models ; climate forcing ; climate modeling ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; paleoclimate ; proxy climate record ; Anthozoa
英文摘要: The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data-model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18 O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data-model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51673
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Mánoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Monash Weather and Climate, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Menai, NSW, Australia; Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Phipps S.J.,Mcgregor H.V.,Gergis J.,et al. Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(18)
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