DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00505.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84883151474
论文题名: The present and future of the west african monsoon: A process-oriented assessment of CMIP5 simulations along the AMMA transect
作者: Roehrig R. ; Bouniol D. ; Guichard F. ; Hourdin F. ; Redelsperger J.C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 17 起始页码: 6471
结束页码: 6505
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate projection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Decadal variability
; Diurnal fluctuations
; Multi-disciplinary analysis
; Temperature response
; Top of atmospheres
; West African Monsoon
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Computer simulation
; Global warming
; Oceanography
; Climate models
; accuracy assessment
; amplitude
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cloud cover
; decadal variation
; energy balance
; future prospect
; monsoon
; precipitation intensity
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; spring (season)
; summer
; surface energy
; temperature profile
; top of atmosphere
; trend analysis
; warming
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (Equatorial)
; West Africa
英文摘要: The present assessment of the West African monsoon in the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) indicates little evolution since the third phase of CMIP (CMIP3) in terms of both biases in present-day climate and climate projections. The outlook for precipitation in twenty-first-century coupled simulations exhibits opposite responses between the westernmost and eastern Sahel. The spread in the trend amplitude, however, remains large in both regions. Besides, although all models predict a spring and summer warming of the Sahel that is 10%-50% larger than the global warming, their temperature response ranges from 0 to 7 K. CMIP5 coupled models underestimate the monsoon decadal variability, but SST-imposed simulations succeed in capturing the recent partial recovery of monsoon rainfall. Coupled models still display major SST biases in the equatorial Atlantic, inducing a systematic southward shift of the monsoon. Because of these strong biases, the monsoon is further evaluated in SST-imposed simulations along the 108W-108E African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis(AMMA)transect, across a range of time scales ranging from seasonal to intraseasonal and diurnal fluctuations. The comprehensive set of observational data now available allows an in-depth evaluation of the monsoon across those scales, especially through the use of high-frequency outputs provided by some CMIP5models at selected sites along the AMMA transect. Most models capture many features of the African monsoon with varying degrees of accuracy. In particular, the simulation of the top-of-atmosphere and surface energy balances, in relation with the cloud cover, and the intermittence and diurnal cycle of precipitation demand further work to achieve a reasonable realism. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51690
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France; LMD, IPSL, Paris, France; LPO, Brest, France
Recommended Citation:
Roehrig R.,Bouniol D.,Guichard F.,et al. The present and future of the west african monsoon: A process-oriented assessment of CMIP5 simulations along the AMMA transect[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(17)