DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00827.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84883160351
论文题名: Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s
作者: Robson J. ; Sutton R. ; Smith D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 17 起始页码: 6329
结束页码: 6339
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Central America
; Climate impacts
; Climate prediction
; North Atlantic
; Prediction systems
; Sea surface temperatures
; Subpolar gyres
; Surface climate
; Forecasting
; Geothermal springs
; Oceanography
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; global ocean
; hindcasting
; sea state
; sea surface temperature
; warming
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Central America
; Europe
; North America
; Pacific Ocean
; South America
英文摘要: During the 1990s there was a major change in the state of the world's oceans. In particular, the North Atlantic underwent a rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the subpolar gyre region increasing by 18C in just a few years. Associated with the changes in SST patterns were changes in the surface climate, in particular, a tendency for warm and dry conditions over areas of North America in all seasons, and warm springs and wet summers over areas of Europe. Here, the extent to which a climate prediction system initialized using observations of the ocean state is able to capture the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate is investigated. Rather than examining predictions of the mid-1990s North Atlantic warming event itself, this study compares hindcasts started before and after the warming, relative to hindcasts that do not assimilate information. It is demonstrated that the hindcasts capture many aspects of the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate, especially in North, South, and Central America and in Europe. Furthermore, the prediction system retains skill beyond the first year. Finally, it is shown that, in addition to memory of Atlantic SSTs, successfully predicting Pacific SSTs was likely important for the hindcasts to predict surface climate over North America. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51691
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Directorate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Robson J.,Sutton R.,Smith D.. Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(17)