DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878956247
论文题名: Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios
作者: Knutson T.R. ; Sirutis J.J. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Garner S. ; Zhao M. ; Kim H.S. ; Bender M. ; Tuleya R.E. ; Held I.M. ; Villarini G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 17 起始页码: 6591
结束页码: 6617
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atlantic hurricane
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Downscaling simulations
; Dynamical downscaling
; Emissions scenarios
; Environmental water
; Hurricane activity
; Multi-model ensemble
; Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; hurricane
; precipitation intensity
; twenty first century
; Atlantic Ocean
英文摘要: Twenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-kmgrid regional and 50-kmgrid globalmodels. Stormcases from the regionalmodel are further downscaled into theGeophysical FluidDynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model (9-km inner grid spacing, with ocean coupling) to simulate intense hurricanes at a finer resolution. A significant reduction in tropical storm frequency is projected for the CMIP3 (227%), CMIP5-early (220%) and CMIP5-late (223%) ensembles and for 5 of the 10 individual CMIP3 models. Lifetime maximumhurricane intensity increases significantly in the high-resolution experiments-by 4%-6%for CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. A significant increase (187%) in the frequency of very intense (categories 4 and 5) hurricanes (winds $ 59ms21) is projected using CMIP3, but smaller, only marginally significant increases are projected (145%and 139%) for the CMIP5-early and CMIP5-late scenarios. Hurricane rainfall rates increase robustly for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios. For the late-twenty-first century, this increase amounts to120% to 130%in the model hurricane's inner core, with a smaller increase (;10%) for averaging radii of 200km or larger. The fractional increase in precipitation at large radii (200-400 km) approximates that expected from environmental water vapor content scaling, while increases for the inner core exceed this level. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51702
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, United States; IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, United States
Recommended Citation:
Knutson T.R.,Sirutis J.J.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(17)