DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00572.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84883150442
论文题名: Climate change projections in CESM1(CAM5) compared to CCSM4
作者: Meehl G.A. ; Washington W.M. ; Arblaster J.M. ; Hu A. ; Teng H. ; Kay J.E. ; Gettelman A. ; Lawrence D.M. ; Sanderson B.M. ; Strand W.G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 17 起始页码: 6287
结束页码: 6308
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosol direct forcing
; Aerosol optical depths
; Climate change projections
; Climate sensitivity
; Community atmospheric model
; Community climate system model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Meridional overturning circulations
; Atmospheric aerosols
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Climate models
; arctic environment
; atmospheric modeling
; climate change
; climate feedback
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; meridional circulation
; overturn
; twenty first century
; warming
; Arctic
; Atlantic Ocean
英文摘要: Future climate change projections for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are presented for the Community Earth System Model version 1 that includes the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. These results are compared to the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and include simulations using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100 to 2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CESM1 (CAM5) is 4.108C, which is higher than the CCSM4 value of 3.208C. The transient climate response is 2.338C, compared to the CCSM4 value of 1.738C. Thus, even though CESM1(CAM5) includes both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols (CCSM4 had only the direct effect), the overall climate system response including forcing and feedbacks is greater in CESM1(CAM5) compared to CCSM4. The Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CESM1(CAM5) weakens considerably in the twenty-first century in all the RCP scenarios, and recovers more slowly in the lower forcing scenarios. The total aerosol optical depth (AOD) changes from ;0.12 in 2006 to ;0.10 in 2100, compared to a preindustrial 1850 value of 0.08, so there is less negative forcing (a net positive forcing) from that source during the twenty-first century. Consequently, the change from 2006 to 2100 in aerosol direct forcing in CESM1(CAM5) contributes to greater twenty-first century warming relative to CCSM4. There is greater Arctic warming and sea ice loss in CESM1(CAM5), with an ice-free summer Arctic occurring by about 2060 in RCP8.5 (2040s in September) as opposed to about 2100 in CCSM4 (2060s in September). © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51711
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Meehl G.A.,Washington W.M.,Arblaster J.M.,et al. Climate change projections in CESM1(CAM5) compared to CCSM4[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(17)