DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00464.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878975627
论文题名: Multiyear predictions of north atlantic hurricane frequency: Promise and limitations
作者: Vecchi G.A. ; Msadek R. ; Anderson W. ; Chang Y.-S. ; Delworth T. ; Dixon K. ; Gudgel R. ; Rosati A. ; Stern B. ; Villarini G. ; Wittenberg A. ; Yang X. ; Zeng F. ; Zhang R. ; Zhang S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 15 起始页码: 5337
结束页码: 5357
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atlantic Ocean
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Multidecadal variability
; Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Tropics
; Forecasting
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; hurricane
; radiative forcing
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; typhoon
; Atlantic Ocean
英文摘要: Retrospective predictions of multiyear North Atlantic Ocean hurricane frequency are explored by applying a hybrid statistical-dynamical forecast system to initialized and noninitialized multiyear forecasts of tropical Atlantic and tropical-mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two global climate model forecast systems. By accounting for impacts of initialization and radiative forcing, retrospective predictions of 5-and 9-yr mean tropical Atlantic hurricane frequency show significant correlations relative to a null hypothesis of zero correlation. The retrospective correlations are increased in a two-model average forecast and by using a lagged-ensemble approach, with the two-model ensemble decadal forecasts of hurricane frequency over 1961-2011 yielding correlation coefficients that approach 0.9. These encouraging retrospective multiyear hurricane predictions, however, should be interpreted with care: although initialized forecasts have higher nominal skill than uninitialized ones, the relatively short record and large autocorrelation of the time series limits confidence in distinguishing between the skill caused by external forcing and that added by initialization. The nominal increase in correlation in the initialized forecasts relative to the uninitialized experiments is caused by improved representation of the multiyear tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. The skill in the initialized forecasts comes in large part from the persistence of a mid-1990s shift by the initialized forecasts, rather than from predicting its evolution. Predicting shifts like that observed in 1994/95 remains a critical issue for the success of multiyear forecasts of Atlantic hurricane frequency. The retrospective forecasts highlight the possibility that changes in observing system impact forecast performance. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51715
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States; IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, LA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Vecchi G.A.,Msadek R.,Anderson W.,et al. Multiyear predictions of north atlantic hurricane frequency: Promise and limitations[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(15)