DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00645.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881637219
论文题名: Dynamical Downscaling of Austral Summer Climate Forecasts over Southern Africa Using a Regional Coupled Model
作者: Ratnam J.V. ; Behera S.K. ; Ratna S.B. ; De Rautenbach C.J.W. ; Lennard C. ; Luo J.-J. ; Masumoto Y. ; Takahashi K. ; Yamagata T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 16 起始页码: 6015
结束页码: 6032
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Coupled general circulation models
; Dynamical downscaling
; Initial and boundary conditions
; Mixed layer ocean models
; Precipitation anomalies
; Precipitation forecast
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Surface air temperatures
; Atmospheric temperature
; Research
; Weather forecasting
; Climate models
; air temperature
; atmospheric general circulation model
; boundary condition
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; oceanic general circulation model
; precipitation assessment
; sea surface temperature
; summer
; weather forecasting
; Southern Africa
英文摘要: The prediction skill of dynamical downscaling is evaluated for climate forecasts over southern Africa using the Advanced ResearchWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. As a case study, forecasts for the December-February (DJF) season of 2011/12 are evaluated. Initial and boundary conditions for the WRF model were taken from the seasonal forecasts of the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F) coupled general circulation model. In addition to sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts generated by nine-member ensemble forecasts of SINTEX-F, theWRFwas also configured to use SST generated by a simple mixed layer Price-Weller-Pinkel ocean model coupled to the WRF model. Analysis of the ensemble mean shows that the uncoupled WRF model significantly increases the biases (errors) in precipitation forecasted by SINTEX-F. When coupled to a simple mixed layer ocean model, the WRF model improves the spatial distribution of precipitation over southern Africa through a better representation of the moisture fluxes. Precipitation anomalies forecasted by the coupled WRF are seen to be significantly correlated with the observed precipitation anomalies over South Africa, Zimbabwe, southern Madagascar, and parts of Zambia and Angola. This is in contrast to the SINTEX-F global model precipitation anomaly forecasts that are closer to observations only for parts of Zimbabwe and South Africa. Therefore, the dynamical downscaling with the coupled WRF adds value to the SINTEX-F precipitation forecasts over southern Africa. However, the WRF model yields positive biases (.28C) in surface air temperature forecasts over the southern African landmass in both the coupled and uncoupled configurations because of biases in the net heat fluxes. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51735
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Research Institute for Global Change, Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; Application Laboratory, Earth Simulator Center, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Ratnam J.V.,Behera S.K.,Ratna S.B.,et al. Dynamical Downscaling of Austral Summer Climate Forecasts over Southern Africa Using a Regional Coupled Model[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(16)