DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00732.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881621951
论文题名: The Continuum of hydroclimate variability in Western North America during the last millennium
作者: Ault T.R. ; Cole J.E. ; Overpeck J.T. ; Pederson G.T. ; George S.S. ; Otto-Bliesner B. ; Woodhouse C.A. ; Deser C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 16 起始页码: 5863
结束页码: 5878
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Coupled models
; Frequency spectra
; Last millenniums
; Low frequency variability
; Monthly time scale
; Null hypothesis
; Paleoclimate records
; Autocorrelation
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Spectral density
; Climate models
; autocorrelation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; numerical model
; paleoclimate
; proxy climate record
; North America
英文摘要: The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here power spectra and power laws (b) are estimated from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). The significance of the estimates of spectral densities and b are tested against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (nonclimate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly time scale. Although tree-ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of b calculated from long moisture-sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions) and other types of hydroclimate proxies exceed null expectations. Therefore it may be argued that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal-to-multidecadal time scales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51748
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Az, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT, United States; Department of Geography, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Geography, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ault T.R.,Cole J.E.,Overpeck J.T.,et al. The Continuum of hydroclimate variability in Western North America during the last millennium[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(16)