DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00718.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881233785
论文题名: What do rain gauges tell us about the limits of precipitation predictability?
作者: Gianotti D. ; Anderson B.T. ; Salvucci G.D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 15 起始页码: 5682
结束页码: 5688
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmosphere-land interactions
; Climate prediction
; Inter-decadal variability
; North America
; Statistical forecasting
; Climatology
; Gages
; Stochastic models
; Rain gages
; atmosphere-biosphere interaction
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; geostatistics
; orographic effect
; precipitation (climatology)
; raingauge
; seasonal variation
; stochasticity
; weather forecasting
; Pacific Coast [North America]
; United States
英文摘要: A generalizable method is presented for establishing the potential predictability for seasonal precipitation occurrence using rain gauge data. This method provides an observationally based upper limit for potential predictability for 774 weather stations in the contiguous United States. It is found that the potentially predictable fraction varies seasonally and spatially, and that on average 30% of year-to-year seasonal variability is potentially explained by predictable climate processes. Potential predictability is generally highest in winter, appears to be enhanced by orography and land surface coupling, and is lowest (stochastic variance is highest) along the Pacific coast. These results depict "hot" spots of climate variability, for use in guiding regional climate forecasting and in uncovering processes driving climate. Identified "cold" spots are equally useful in guiding future studies as predictable climate signals in these areas will likely be undetectable. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51758
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gianotti D.,Anderson B.T.,Salvucci G.D.. What do rain gauges tell us about the limits of precipitation predictability?[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(15)