DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00612.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881636710
论文题名: Seasonal forecasts of the pan-arctic sea ice extent using a GCM-based seasonal prediction system
作者: Chevallier M. ; Mélia D.D.Y. ; Voldoire A. ; Déqué M. ; Garric G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 16 起始页码: 6092
结束页码: 6104
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model
; Coupled climate systems
; Coupled global climate model
; Current ability
; Persistent feature
; Sea ice extent
; Seasonal forecasts
; Seasonal prediction
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; atmosphere-ice-ocean system
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; ice cover
; oceanic general circulation model
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: An ocean-sea ice model reconstruction spanning the period 1990-2009 is used to initialize ensemble seasonal forecasts with the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model version 5.1 (CNRM-CM5.1) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The aim of this study is to assess the skill of fully initialized September and March pan-Arctic sea ice forecasts in terms of climatology and interannual anomalies. The predictions are initialized using ''full field initialization'' of each component of the system. In spite of a drift due to radiative biases in the coupled model during the melt season, the full initialization of the sea ice cover on 1May leads to skillful forecasts of the September sea ice extent (SIE) anomalies. The skill of the prediction is also significantly high when considering anomalies of the SIE relative to the long-term linear trend. It confirms that the anomaly of spring sea ice cover in itself plays a role in preconditioning a September SIE anomaly. The skill of predictions forMarch SIE initialized on 1November is also encouraging, and it can be partly attributed to persistent features of the fall sea ice cover. The present study gives insight into the current ability of state-of-the-art coupled climate systems to perform operational seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice cover up to 5 months in advance. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51761
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Mercator-Océan, Ramonville Saint-Agne, France
Recommended Citation:
Chevallier M.,Mélia D.D.Y.,Voldoire A.,et al. Seasonal forecasts of the pan-arctic sea ice extent using a GCM-based seasonal prediction system[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(16)