DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00683.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880648151
论文题名: CFSv2-Based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts over the conterminous United States
作者: Yuan X. ; Wood E.F. ; Roundy J.K. ; Pan M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 13 起始页码: 4828
结束页码: 4847
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate forecasts
; Drought severity
; Operational forecast system
; Post-processor
; Streamflow forecast
; Streamflow prediction
; U.s. geological surveys
; Underdispersion
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Drought
; Soil moisture
; Stream flow
; Forecasting
; Bayesian analysis
; climate modeling
; climatology
; downscaling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; hindcasting
; hydrometeorology
; precipitation assessment
; raingauge
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; United States
英文摘要: There is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate model-based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and its previous version, CFSv1, to investigate the value of climate models by conducting a set of 27-yr seasonal hydroclimatic hindcasts over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation R2 and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO have further improvements over southern basins out to 4 months. Verification of streamflow forecasts over 1734 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauges shows that CFSv2 has moderately smaller error than ESP, but all three approaches have limited added skill against climatology beyond 1 month because of overforecasting or underdispersion errors. Using a postprocessor, 60%-70% of probabilistic streamflow forecasts are more skillful than climatology. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over the central United States out to 6 months, and climate models provide better results over the central and eastern United States. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur in different seasons for different basins. The R2 of drought severity accumulated over CONUS is higher during winter, and climate models present added value, especially at long leads. This study indicates that climate models can provide better seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts than ESP through appropriate downscaling procedures, but significant improvements are dependent on the variables, seasons, and regions. ©2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51781
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yuan X.,Wood E.F.,Roundy J.K.,et al. CFSv2-Based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts over the conterminous United States[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(13)