globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00554.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880654081
论文题名:
Twenty-first-century compatible co2 emissions and airborne fraction simulated by cmip5 earth system models under four representative concentration pathways
作者: Jones C.; Robertson E.; Arora V.; Friedlingstein P.; Shevliakova E.; Bopp L.; Brovkin V.; Hajima T.; Kato E.; Kawamiya M.; Liddicoat S.; Lindsay K.; Reick C.H.; Roelandt C.; Segschneider J.; Tjiputra J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期:13
起始页码: 4398
结束页码: 4413
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic emissions ; Carbon emissions ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Earth system model ; Emissions scenarios ; Future projections ; Integrated assessment models ; Process-based models ; Atmospheric composition ; Carbon ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate models ; Earth (planet) ; Forestry ; Global warming ; Computer simulation ; atmospheric chemistry ; carbon cycle ; carbon dioxide ; carbon emission ; carbon sequestration ; chemical composition ; climate change ; climate feedback ; emission control ; general circulation model ; twenty first century
英文摘要: The carbon cycle is a crucial Earth system component affecting climate and atmospheric composition. The response of natural carbon uptake to CO2 and climate change will determine anthropogenic emissions compatible with a target CO2 pathway. For phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), four future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and used as scenarios by state-of-the-art climate models, enabling quantification of compatible carbon emissions for the four scenarios by complex, process-based models. Here, the authors present results from 15 such Earth system GCMs for future changes in land and ocean carbon storage and the implications for anthropogenic emissions. The results are consistent with the underlying scenarios but show substantial model spread. Uncertainty in land carbon uptake due to differences among models is comparable with the spread across scenarios. Model estimates of historical fossil-fuel emissions agree well with reconstructions, and future projections for representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP4.5 are consistent with the IAMs. For high-end scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), GCMs simulate smaller compatible emissions than the IAMs, indicating a larger climate-carbon cycle feedback in the GCMs in these scenarios. For the RCP2.6 mitigation scenario, an average reduction of 50% in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels is required but with very large model spread (14%-96%). The models also disagree on both the requirement for sustained negative emissions to achieve the RCP2.6 CO2 concentration and the success of this scenario to restrict global warming below 28C. All models agree that the future airborne fraction depends strongly on the emissions profile with higher airborne fraction for higher emissions scenarios. ©2013 American Meteorological Society.
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被引频次[WOS]:209   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51805
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; LSCE, IPSL, CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, k Boulder, CO, United States; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Jones C.,Robertson E.,Arora V.,et al. Twenty-first-century compatible co2 emissions and airborne fraction simulated by cmip5 earth system models under four representative concentration pathways[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(13)
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