| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00285.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84877822595
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| 论文题名: | The reversibility of sea level rise |
| 作者: | Bouttes N.; Gregory J.M.; Lowe J.A.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 26, 期:8 | | 起始页码: | 2502
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| 结束页码: | 2513
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Geographical patterns
; Global mean sea levels
; Radiative forcings
; Regional sea level changes
; Scenario simulations
; Surface air temperatures
; Surface temperatures
; Vertical profile
; Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Sea level
; Seawater
; Thermal expansion
; Carbon dioxide
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; concentration (composition)
; energy balance
; global climate
; radiative forcing
; sea level change
; sea surface temperature
; seawater
; thermal expansion
; vertical profile
; warming
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| 英文摘要: | During the last century, global climate has been warming, and projections indicate that such a warming is likely to continue over coming decades. Most of the extra heat is stored in the ocean, resulting in thermal expansion of seawater and global mean sea level rise. Previous studies have shown that after CO2 emissions cease or CO2 concentration is stabilized, global mean surface air temperature stabilizes or decreases slowly, but sea level continues to rise. Using idealized CO2 scenario simulations with a hierarchy of models including an AOGCM and a step-response model, the authors show how the evolution of thermal expansion can be interpreted in terms of the climate energy balance and the vertical profile of ocean warming. Whereas surface temperature depends on cumulative CO2 emissions, sea level rise due to thermal expansion depends on the time profile of emissions. Sea level rise is smaller for later emissions, implying that targets to limit sea level rise would need to refer to the rate of emissions, not only to the time integral. Thermal expansion is in principle reversible, but to halt or reverse it quickly requires the radiative forcing to be reduced substantially, which is possible on centennial time scales only by geoengineering. If it could be done, the results indicate that heat would leave the ocean more readily than it entered, but even if thermal expansion were returned to zero, the geographical pattern of sea level would be altered. Therefore, despite any aggressive CO2 mitigation, regional sea level change is inevitable. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51885
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Bouttes N.,Gregory J.M.,Lowe J.A.. The reversibility of sea level rise[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(8)
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