DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00730.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878155504
论文题名: Quantifying the likelihood of regional climate change: A hybridized approach
作者: Adam Schlosser C. ; Gao X. ; Strzepek K. ; Sokolov A. ; Forest E.C. ; Awadalla S. ; Farmer W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 10 起始页码: 3394
结束页码: 3414
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Impacts and adaptation
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
; Near surface air temperature
; Regional climate changes
; Risk-based assessments
; Trace gas concentrations
; Transformation coefficients
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Climate change
; air temperature
; atmospheric modeling
; climate change
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: specifically, the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Herein, the authors present a technique that extends the latitudinal projections of the 2D atmospheric model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) by applying longitudinally resolved patterns from observations, and from climate model projections archived from exercises carried out for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The method maps the IGSM zonal means across longitude using a set of transformation coefficients, and this approach is demonstrated in application to nearsurface air temperature and precipitation, for which high-quality observational datasets and model simulations of climate change are available. The current climatology of the transformation coefficients is observationally based. To estimate how these coefficients may alter with climate, the authors characterize the climate models' spatial responses, relative to their zonal mean, from transient increases in trace-gas concentrations and then normalize these responses against their corresponding transient global temperature responses. This procedure allows for the construction of metaensembles of regional climate outcomes, combining the ensembles of the MIT IGSM-which produce global and latitudinal climate projections, with uncertainty, under different global climate policy scenarios-with regionally resolved patterns from the archived IPCC climate model projections. This hybridization of the climate model longitudinal projections with the global and latitudinal patterns projected by the IGSM can, in principle, be applied to any given state or flux variable that has the sufficient observational and model-based information. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51932
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Tufts University, Medford, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Adam Schlosser C.,Gao X.,Strzepek K.,et al. Quantifying the likelihood of regional climate change: A hybridized approach[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(10)