DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00242.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84876097701
论文题名: Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on atlantic hurricane activity
作者: Emanuel K. ; Solomon S. ; Folini D. ; Davis S. ; Cagnazzo C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 7 起始页码: 2288
结束页码: 2301
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atlantic hurricane
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Lower stratosphere
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Stratospheric circulations
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Tropical tropopause
; Tropical tropopause layers
; Atmospheric temperature
; Clouds
; Computer simulation
; Cooling
; Ozone layer
; Sea ice
; Tropics
; Hurricanes
; atmospheric general circulation model
; downscaling
; hurricane
; outflow
; tropical cyclone
; tropopause
英文摘要: Virtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the associated decrease in tropical cyclone outflow temperature contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone potential intensity over this period. Quantitative uncertainties in the magnitude of the cooling are important, but a broad range of observations supports some cooling. Downscalings of the output of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) that are driven by observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover produce little if any increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics over the past two decades, even though observed variability before roughly 1970 is well simulated by some of the models. Part of this shortcoming is traced to the failure of the AGCMs examined to reproduce the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past few decades. The authors caution against using sea surface temperature or proxies based on it to make projections of tropical cyclone activity as there can be significant contributions from other variables such as the outflow temperature. The proposed mechanisms of TTL cooling (e.g., ozone depletion and stratospheric circulation changes) are reviewed, and the need for improved representations of these processes in global models in order to improve projections of future tropical cyclone activity is emphasized. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51965
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Bologna, Italy; Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima, ISAC-CNR, Rome, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Emanuel K.,Solomon S.,Folini D.,et al. Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on atlantic hurricane activity[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(7)