DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00049.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871210187
论文题名: The Indian ocean: The region of highest skill worldwide in decadal climate prediction
作者: Guemas V. ; Corti S. ; García-Serrano J. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J. ; Balmaseda M. ; Magnusson L.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 3 起始页码: 726
结束页码: 739
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate prediction
; Climate state
; Ensembles
; Forced variability
; Hindcasts
; Historical simulation
; Indian ocean
; Initial conditions
; Internal variability
; Least Square
; Radiative forcings
; Root-mean-square errors
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Solar activity
; Stratospheric aerosols
; Volcanic aerosols
; Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Oceanography
; Solar energy
; Volcanoes
; Aerosols
; aerosol
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; computer simulation
; correlation
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; global warming
; hindcasting
; least squares method
; radiative forcing
; regression analysis
; sea surface temperature
; stratosphere
; Indian Ocean
英文摘要: The Indian Ocean stands out as the region where the state-of-the-art decadal climate predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) perform the best worldwide for forecast times ranging from the second to the ninth year, according to correlation and root-mean-square error (RMSE) scores. This paper investigates the reasons for this high skill by assessing the contributions from the initial conditions, greenhouse gases, solar activity, and volcanic aerosols. The comparison between the SST correlation skill in uninitialized historical simulations and hindcasts initialized fromestimates of the observed climate state shows that the high Indian Ocean skill is largely explained by the varying radiative forcings, the latter finding being supported by a set of additional sensitivity experiments. The long-term warming trend is the primary contributor to the high skill, though not the only one. Volcanic aerosols bring additional skill in this region as shown by the comparison between initialized hindcasts taking into account or not the effect of volcanic stratospheric aerosols and by the drop in skill when filtering out their effect in hindcasts that take them into account. Indeed, the Indian Ocean is shown to be the region where the ratio of the internally generated over the externally forced variability is the lowest, where the amplitude of the internal variability has been estimated by removing the effect of long-term warming trend and volcanic aerosols by a multiple least squares linear regression on observed SSTs. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52036
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Riceche, Bologna, Italy; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Instituciò Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats, Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Guemas V.,Corti S.,García-Serrano J.,et al. The Indian ocean: The region of highest skill worldwide in decadal climate prediction[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(3)