DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84872967365
论文题名: A predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system
作者: Yang X. ; Rosati A. ; Zhang S. ; Delworth T.L. ; Gudgel R.G. ; Zhang R. ; Vecchi G. ; Anderson W. ; Chang Y.S. ; Delsole T. ; Dixon K. ; Msadek R. ; Stern W.F. ; Wittenberg A. ; Zeng F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 2 起始页码: 650
结束页码: 661
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Air temperature
; Antarctic circumpolar current regions
; Antarctica
; Bipolar seesaw
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Coupled models
; Data assimilation systems
; Data sets
; Forecasting system
; Fully-coupled
; Greenland
; Heat transport
; Hindcasts
; Internal dynamics
; Leadtime
; Multidecadal variations
; North Atlantic
; North Pacific
; Observing systems
; Radiative forcings
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Subpolar gyres
; Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Computer simulation
; Experiments
; Forecasting
; Ocean currents
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; computer simulation
; data assimilation
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; gyre
; heat transfer
; hindcasting
; radiative forcing
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; Antarctica
; Arctic
; Greenland
英文摘要: The decadal predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature (T2m)in theGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) decadal hindcasts, which are part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project experiments, has been investigated using an average predictability time (APT) analysis. Comparison of retrospective forecasts initialized using the GFDL Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation system with uninitialized historical forcing simulations using the same model allows identification of the internal multidecadal pattern (IMP) forSST and T2m. The IMP of SST is characterized by an interhemisphere dipole, with warm anomaliescentered in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region and North Pacific subpolar gyre region, and cold anomalies centered in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. The IMP of T2m is characterized by a general bipolar seesaw, with warm anomalies centered in Greenland and cold anomalies centered in Antarctica. The retrospective prediction skill of the initialized system, verified against independent observational datasets, indicates that the IMP of SST may be predictable up to 4 (10) yr lead time at 95% (90%) significance level, and the IMP of T2m may be predictable up to 2 (10) yr at the 95% (90%) significance level. The initialization of multidecadal variations of northward oceanic heat transport in the North Atlantic significantly improves the predictive skill of the IMP. The dominant roles of oceanic internal dynamics in decadal predictionare further elucidated by fixed-forcing experiments in which radiative forcing is returned abruptly to 1961 values. These results point toward the possibility of meaningful decadalclimate outlooks using dynamical coupled models if they are appropriately initialized from a sustained climate observing system. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52050
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yang X.,Rosati A.,Zhang S.,et al. A predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(2)