DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00366.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84872893351
论文题名: Comparing tropical forest projections from two generations of hadley centre earth system models, HadGEM2-ES and HadCM3LC
作者: Good P. ; Jones C. ; Lowe J. ; Betts R. ; Gedney N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 2 起始页码: 495
结束页码: 511
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Amazon forests
; Amazon rain forest
; Atmospheric greenhouse
; Business-as-usual
; Carbon cycles
; Earth system model
; Earth systems
; Environmental model
; Forest dieback
; Forest response
; Gas concentration
; In-control
; Lower resolution
; Regional warming
; Tropical forest
; Unified model
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Earth (planet)
; Forestry
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; concentration (composition)
; greenhouse gas
; modeling
; rainforest
; tropical forest
; Carbon Dioxide
; Climates
; Forestry
; Meteorology
; Models
; Amazonia
英文摘要: Future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated influences on climate could affect the future sustainability of tropical forests. The authors report on tropical forest projections from the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 Earth System configuration (HadGEM2-ES) and compare them to results from the previous generation model [third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model in lower resolution with carbon cycle (HadCM3LC)], which had projected near-complete dieback of the Amazon rain forest for a business as usual scenario. In contrast, HadGEM2-ES projects minimal change in Amazon forest extent. The main aim of this study is a preliminary investigation of this difference between the two models. It is found that around 40% of thedifference in forest dieback projections is associated with differences in the projected change in dry-season length. Differences in control climatologies of temperature and dry-season length, projected regional warming, and the forest response to climate and CO2 also all contribute to the increased survival of forest in HadGEM2-ES. However, HadGEM2-ES does not invalidate HadCM3LC: Amazon dieback remains a possible scenario of dangerous change that requires further understanding. The authors discuss the relevance to assessments of dieback risk and future work toward narrowing uncertainty about the fate of the Amazonforest. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52063
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Good P.,Jones C.,Lowe J.,et al. Comparing tropical forest projections from two generations of hadley centre earth system models, HadGEM2-ES and HadCM3LC[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(2)