DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00633.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84870049578
论文题名: Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model
作者: Matei D. ; Pohlmann H. ; Jungclaus J. ; Müller W. ; Haak H. ; Marotzke J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 24 起始页码: 8502
结束页码: 8523
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Air temperature
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Atmospheric reanalysis
; Climate predictability
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Coupled models
; Hindcasts
; Mediterranean sea
; Model initialization
; North Atlantic
; Ocean experiment
; Ocean model
; Ocean state
; Reanalysis
; Regional distribution
; Subpolar gyres
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Experiments
; Forecasting
; Oceanography
; climate prediction
; data assimilation
; decadal variation
; hindcasting
; numerical model
; sea surface temperature
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: This paper investigates the impact of different ocean initialization strategies on the forecast skill of decadal prediction experiments performed with the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) coupled model. The ocean initializations assimilate three-dimensional temperature and salinity anomalies from two different ocean state estimates, the ocean reanalysis of the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of theOcean (GECCO) and an ensemble ofMPI-OM ocean experiments forced with the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalysis. The results show that North Atlantic and Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) variations can be skillfully predicted up to a decade ahead and with greater skill than by both uninitialized simulations and persistence forecasts. The regional distribution of SSTpredictive skill is similar in both initialization approaches; however, higher skill is found for the NCEP hindcasts than for the GECCO hindcasts whena combination of predictive skill measures is used. Skillful predictions ofsurface air temperature are obtained over northwestern Europe, northern Africa, and central-eastern Asia. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre region stands out as the region with the highest predictive skill beyond the warming trend, in both SST and upper-ocean heatcontent predictions. Here the NCEP hindcasts deliver the best results due to a more accurate initialization of the observed variability. The dominantmechanism for North Atlantic climate predictability is of dynamical origin and can be attributed to the initialization of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thus explaining the reoccurrence of high predictive skill within the second pentad of the hindcasts experiments. The results herein demonstrate that ocean experiments forced with the observed history of the atmospheric state constitute a simple but successful alternative strategy for the initialization of skillful climate predictions over the next decade. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52118
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Matei D.,Pohlmann H.,Jungclaus J.,et al. Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(24)