DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00441.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871782276
论文题名: Can a regional climate model improve the ability to forecast the North American monsoon?
作者: Castro C.L. ; Chang H.-I. ; Dominguez F. ; Carrillo C. ; Schemm J.-K. ; Juang H.-M.H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 23 起始页码: 8212
结束页码: 8237
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate prediction
; Interannual variability
; Mesoscale
; Mesoscale model
; Regional model
; Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Boundary layers
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Rain
; Weather forecasting
; air-sea interaction
; annual variation
; atmospheric modeling
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; mesoscale meteorology
; monsoon
; numerical model
; parameterization
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; regional climate
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; terrain
; weather forecasting
; North America
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Global climate models are challenged to represent the North American monsoon, in terms of its climatology and interannual variability. To investigate whether a regional atmospheric model can improve warm season forecasts in North America, a retrospective Climate Forecast System (CFS) model reforecast (1982-2000) and the corresponding NCEP-NCAR reanalysis are dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with similar parameterization options as used for highresolution numerical weather prediction and a new spectral nudging capability. The regional model improves the climatological representation of monsoon precipitation because of its more realistic representation of the diurnal cycle of convection. However, it is challenged to capture organized, propagating convection at a distance from terrain, regardless of the boundary forcing data used. Dynamical downscaling of CFS generally yields modest improvement in surface temperature and precipitation anomaly correlations in those regions where it is already positive in the global model. For the North American monsoon region, WRF adds value to the seasonally forecast temperature only in early summer and does not add value to the seasonally forecast precipitation. CFS has a greater ability to represent the large-scaleatmospheric circulation in early summer because of the influence of Pacific SST forcing. The temperature and precipitation anomaly correlations in both the global and regional model are thus relatively higher in early summer than late summer. As the dominant modes of early warm season precipitation are better represented in the regional model, given reasonable large-scale atmospheric forcing, dynamical downscalingwill add value to warm season seasonal forecasts. CFS performance appears to be inconsistent in this regard. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52123
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS, Camp Springs, MD, United States; Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS, Camp Springs, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Castro C.L.,Chang H.-I.,Dominguez F.,et al. Can a regional climate model improve the ability to forecast the North American monsoon?[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(23)