DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00522.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867684738
论文题名: Season-dependent forecast skill of the leading forced atmospheric circulation pattern over the North Pacific and North American region
作者: Jia X. ; Lin H. ; Lee J.-Y. ; Wang B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 20 起始页码: 7248
结束页码: 7265
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Atmospheric pattern
; Climate prediction
; Ensembles
; ENSO
; Equatorial Pacific
; External forcing
; Extratropical
; Geopotential height
; Initial conditions
; Internal dynamics
; Maximum covariance analysis
; Midlatitudes
; Model performance
; Multi-model ensemble
; North American
; North Pacific
; Northern hemisphere
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal forecasts
; Time evolutions
; Time variations
; Total variance
; Tropical Pacific ocean
; Climate change
; Errors
; Meteorology
; Tropics
; Forecasting
; accuracy assessment
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric forcing
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; extratropical environment
; geopotential
; model test
; model validation
; Northern Hemisphere
; numerical model
; precipitation assessment
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; North America
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Multimodel ensemble (MME) seasonal forecasts are analyzed to evaluate numerical model performance in predicting the leading forced atmospheric circulation pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH). Results show that the time evolution of the leading tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST)-coupled atmospheric pattern (MCA1), which is obtained by applying a maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between 500-hPa geopotential height (Z 500) in the extratropicalNHand SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean, can be predicted with a significant skill in March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), and December-February (DJF) one month ahead. However, most models perform poorly in capturing the time variation of MCA1 in September-November (SON) with 1 August initial condition. Two possible reasons for the models' low skill in SON are identified. First, the models have the most pronounced errors in the mean state of SST and precipitation along the central equatorial Pacific. Because of the link between the divergent circulation forced by tropical heating and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, errors in the mean state of tropical SST and precipitation may lead to a degradation of midlatitude forecast skill. Second, examination of the potential predictability of the atmosphere, estimated by the ratio of the total variance to the variance of the model forecasts due to internal dynamics, shows that the atmospheric potential predictability over the North Pacific-North American (NPNA) region is the lowest in SON compared to the other three seasons. The low ratio in SON is due to a low variance associated with external forcing and a high variance related to atmospheric internal processes over this area. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52223
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Atmospheric Numerical Prediction Research, Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; International Pacific Research Center, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jia X.,Lin H.,Lee J.-Y.,et al. Season-dependent forecast skill of the leading forced atmospheric circulation pattern over the North Pacific and North American region[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(20)