DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00312.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84865200158
论文题名: Climate drift in the CMIP3 models
作者: Gupta A.S. ; Muir L.C. ; Brown J.N. ; Phipps S.J. ; Durack P.J. ; Monselesan D. ; Wijffels S.E.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 13 起始页码: 4621
结束页码: 4640
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric variables
; Climate drift
; Climate properties
; Climate system
; Coupling component
; Ensembles
; External forcing
; Future climate
; General circulation model
; Local scale
; Long-term trend
; Model errors
; Model evaluation
; Model physics
; Multi-model
; Natural variability
; Sea level trends
; Steric sea level
; Twentieth century
; Computer simulation
; Errors
; Plasma diagnostics
; Sea level
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; general circulation model
; trend analysis
; twentieth century
英文摘要: Even in the absence of external forcing, climate models often exhibit long-term trends that cannot be attributed to natural variability. This so-called climate drift arises for various reasons including the following: perturbations to the climate system on coupling component models together and deficiencies in model physics and numerics. When examining trends in historical or future climate simulations, it is important to know the error introduced by drift so that action can be taken where necessary. This study assesses the importance of drift for a number of climate properties at global and local scales. To illustrate this, the present paper focuses on simulated trends over the second half of the twentieth century. While drift in globally averaged surface prop- erties is generally considerably smaller than observed and simulated twentieth-century trends, it can still in- troduce nontrivial errors in some models. Furthermore, errors become increasingly important at smaller scales. The direction of drift is not systematic across different models or variables, as such drift is considerably reduced in the multimodel mean. Despite drift being primarily associated with ocean adjustment, it is also apparent in atmospheric variables. For example, most models have local drift magnitudes in surface air and ocean tem- peratures that are typically between 15% and 35% of the twentieth-century simulation trend magnitudes for 1950-2000. Below depths of 1000-2000 m, drift dominates over any forced trend in most regions. As such steric sea level is strongly affected and for some models and regions the sea level trend direction is reversed. Thus depending on the application, drift may be negligible or may make up an important part of the simulated trend. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52317
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Gupta A.S.,Muir L.C.,Brown J.N.,et al. Climate drift in the CMIP3 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(13)