DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00240.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84859364881
论文题名: Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4
作者: Meehl G.A. ; Washington W.M. ; Arblaster J.M. ; Hu A. ; Teng H. ; Tebaldi C. ; Sanderson B.N. ; Lamarque J.-F. ; Conley A. ; Strand W.G. ; White J.B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 11 起始页码: 3661
结束页码: 3683
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic effects
; Climate change projections
; Climate sensitivity
; Climate system
; Community climate system model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Coupled models
; Ensemble members
; Forcings
; Future climate
; Global surface temperature
; Heat waves
; Meridional overturning circulations
; Precipitation intensity
; Subtropical area
; Sulfate aerosols
; Twentieth century
; Climate change
; Experiments
; Sea ice
; Climate models
; aerosol
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; overturn
; sensitivity analysis
; subtropical region
; surface temperature
英文摘要: Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100-2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20°C, and the transient climate response is 1.73°C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986-2005 reference period for sixmember ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85°, +1.64°, +2.09°, and +3.53°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early twentieth-century values in RCP2.6, partially recovers in RCP4.5 and RCP6, and does not recover by 2100 in RCP8.5. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase almost everywhere in CCSM4 in a future warmer climate, with the magnitude of the increase proportional to the forcing. Precipitation intensity is also projected to increase, with dry days increasing in most subtropical areas. For future climate, there is almost no summer sea ice left in the Arctic in the high RCP8.5 scenario by 2100, but in the low RCP2.6 scenario there is substantial sea ice remaining in summer at the end of the century. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52360
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Meehl G.A.,Washington W.M.,Arblaster J.M.,et al. Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(11)