DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00133.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862729250
论文题名: Future changes in the South Asian summer monsoon: An analysis of the CMIP3 multimodel projections
作者: Fan F. ; Mann M.E. ; Lee S. ; Evans J.L.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 11 起始页码: 3909
结束页码: 3928
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Across time
; Asian summer monsoons
; Atmospheric circulation
; Competing effects
; Correlation analysis
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Interannual fluctuations
; Interannual time scale
; Long-term trend
; Monsoons
; Multi-model
; Multi-model ensemble
; Special report on emissions scenarios
; Static stability
; Thermodynamic energy
; Budget control
; Climatology
; Heating
; Stability
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; adiabatic process
; annual variation
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; energy budget
; ensemble forecasting
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; summer
; thermodynamics
; timescale
英文摘要: The projected future behavior of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is analyzed for the 720-ppm stabilization experiments [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B] of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The multimodel ensemble collectively exhibits a clear tendency for weakening SASM circulation and strengthening SASM precipitation during the twenty-first century. These tendencies are consistent, moreover, among multiple realizations for the same model where available. An annual correlation analysis and thermodynamic energy budget analysis are used to investigate the changes in themonsoon circulation, precipitation (latent heating), and dry static stability across time scales of variation. The strength of the SASM circulation is interpreted in terms of two competing factors: convective latent heating and dry static stability. It is found that on interannual time scales the latent heating wins out over the dry static stability to dominate the interannual fluctuations of the monsoonal circulation. However, the long-term trends in the SASM circulation are governed by the competing effects of the convective latent heating term and the adiabatic term to modify dry static stability in the thermodynamic energy budget. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52367
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fan F.,Mann M.E.,Lee S.,et al. Future changes in the South Asian summer monsoon: An analysis of the CMIP3 multimodel projections[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(11)