DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00415.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862102873
论文题名: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by the new high-resolution MRI-AGCM
作者: Murakami H. ; Wang Y. ; Yoshimura H. ; Mizuta R. ; Sugi M. ; Shindo E. ; Adachi Y. ; Yukimoto S. ; Hosaka M. ; Kusunoki S. ; Ose T. ; Kitoh A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 9 起始页码: 3237
结束页码: 3260
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: A1B scenarios
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Catastrophic damage
; Climate warms
; Global climate model
; Global distribution
; High resolution
; Intergovernmental panel
; Meteorological research institutes
; Pacific ocean
; Realistic simulation
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Western North Pacific
; Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Tropics
; Computer simulation
; atmospheric general circulation model
; catastrophic event
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global climate
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; meteorology
; tropical cyclone
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean (South)
英文摘要: New versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCM version 3.2) have been developed and used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Compared with the previous version (version 3.1), version 3.2 yields a more realistic simulation of the present-day (1979-2003) global distribution of TCs. Moreover, the 20-km-mesh model version 3.2 is able to simulate extremely intense TCs (categories 4 and 5), which is the first time a global climate model has been able to simulate such extremely intense TCs through amultidecadal simulation. Future (2075-99) projections under the Intergovernmental Panel onClimateChange (IPCC) A1B scenario are conducted using versions 3.1 and 3.2, showing consistent decreases in the number of TCs globally and in both hemispheres as climate warms. Although projected future changes in basin-scale TC numbers show some differences between the two versions, the projected frequency of TC occurrence shows a consistent decrease in the western part of the western North Pacific (WNP) and in the South Pacific Ocean (SPO), while it shows a marked increase in the central Pacific. Both versions project a future increase in the frequency of intense TCs globally; however, the degree of increase is smaller in version 3.2 than in version 3.1. This difference arises partly because version 3.2 projects a pronounced decrease in mean TC intensity in the SPO. The 20-km-mesh model version 3.2 projects a northward shift in the most intense TCs (category 5) in the WNP, indicating an increasing potential for future catastrophic damage due to TCs in this region. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52434
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Department of Meteorology, and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Murakami H.,Wang Y.,Yoshimura H.,et al. Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by the new high-resolution MRI-AGCM[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(9)