DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00159.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84859986448
论文题名: Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario for Australian boundary currents
作者: Sun C. ; Feng M. ; Matear R.J. ; Chamberlain M.A. ; Craig P. ; Ridgway K.R. ; Schiller A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 8 起始页码: 2947
结束页码: 2962
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Boundary currents
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Ocean circulation
; Ocean model
; Oceanic variability
; Regional effects
; Trends
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Weather forecasting
; Wind stress
; Ocean currents
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; boundary current
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; downscaling
; ecosystem response
; marine atmosphere
; weather forecasting
; wind stress
; wind-driven circulation
; zonal wind
; Australia
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; Pacific Ocean (South)
英文摘要: Ocean boundary currents are poorly represented in existing coupled climate models, partly because of their insufficient resolution to resolve narrow jets. Therefore, there is limited confidence in the simulated response of boundary currents to climate change by climate models. To address this issue, the eddy-resolving Ocean Forecasting Australia Model (OFAM) was used, forced with bias-corrected output in the 2060s under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B from the CSIRO Mark version 3.5 (Mk3.5) climate model, to provide downscaled regional ocean projections. CSIRO Mk3.5 captures a number of robust changes that are common to most climate models that are consistent with observed changes, including the weakening of the equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress and the strengthening of the wind stress curl in the Southern Pacific, important for driving the boundary currents around Australia. The 1990s climate is downscaled using air-sea fluxes from the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The current speed, seasonality, and volume transports of the Australian boundary currents show much greater fidelity to the observations in the downscaled model. Between the 1990s and the 2060s, the downscaling with the OFAM simulates a 15% reduction in the Leeuwin Current (LC) transport, a 20% decrease in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport, a 12% increase in the East Australian Current (EAC) core transport, and a 35% increase in the EAC extension. The projected changes by the downscaling model are consistent with observed trends over the past several decades and with changes in wind-driven circulation derived from Sverdrup dynamics. Although the direction of change projected from downscaling is usually in agreement with CSIRO Mk3.5, there are important regional details and differences that will impact the response of ecosystems to climate change. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52447
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Floreat, WA, Australia; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Sun C.,Feng M.,Matear R.J.,et al. Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario for Australian boundary currents[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(8)