DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00252.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84858611575
论文题名: Will there be a significant change to El Niño in the twenty-first century?
作者: Stevenson S. ; Baylor B.F. ; Jochum M. ; Neale R. ; Deser C. ; Meehl G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 6 起始页码: 2129
结束页码: 2145
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic climate changes
; Atmospheric teleconnections
; Boreal winters
; Community climate system model
; Control simulation
; Convective cell
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; ENSO
; Extratropical
; General circulation model
; Model evaluation/performance
; Ocean dynamics
; Pre-industrial
; Significance test
; Time-scales
; Tropical thermocline
; Tropical variabilty
; Wind stress curl
; Atmospheric pressure
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate control
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Nickel compounds
; Stream flow
; Tropics
; Climate change
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; computer simulation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; general circulation model
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; thermocline
; twenty first century
; wind stress
英文摘要: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the following 1° nominal resolution Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations: twentieth-century ensemble, preindustrial control, twenty-first-century projections, and stabilized 2100-2300 "extension runs." ENSO variability weakens slightly withCO 2; however, various significance tests reveal that changes are insignificant at all but the highest CO 2 levels. Comparison with the 1850 control simulation suggests thatENSO changes may become significant on centennial time scales; the lack of signal in the twentieth- versus twenty-first-century ensembles is due to their limited duration. Changes to the mean state are consistent with previous studies: a weakening of the subtropical wind stress curl, an eastward shift of the tropical convective cells, a reduction in the zonal SST gradient, and an increase in vertical thermal stratification take place as CO 2 increases. The extratropical thermocline deepens throughout the twenty-first century, with the tropical thermocline changing slowly in response. The adjustment time scale is set by the relevant ocean dynamics, and the delay in its effect on ENSO variability is not diminished by increasing ensemble size. The CCSM4 results imply that twenty-first-century simulations may simply be too short for identification of significant tropical variability response to climate change. An examination of atmospheric teleconnections, in contrast, shows that the remote influences of ENSO do respond rapidly to climate change in some regions, particularly during boreal winter. This suggests that changes toENSO impacts may take place well before changes to oceanic tropical variability itself become significant. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52525
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stevenson S.,Baylor B.F.,Jochum M.,et al. Will there be a significant change to El Niño in the twenty-first century?[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(6)